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terça-feira, setembro 05, 2006
PMP Question - Difference between Beta distribution and Triangular Distribution
The statistical distributions are used based on the type of situation you encounter during execution of the projects.
Pert Methodology of estimation of miu =(to+4tm+tp)/6 considers a Normal distribution. Where you have large number of samples (in other words Historical Information) available.
A Triangular distribution can be preferred when you have estimates based on the judgemental data submitted to you.
In all the cases what is more important from Project Management Perspective is the kind of Probability they carry for overall estimate of the project.
While Pert Method will have a smooth distribution the Triangular will have an abrupt peak at miu.
I would prefer to use Pert Method when I am having an environment of similar works being done earlier, this gives a larger spread of variability. And Triangular for an Extremely New Environment. And minimize my risks of Schedule overruns. In a small variability of the Overall Schdule.
If distribution is triangular , then mean is :
If the distribution is beta, then the mean is :