quinta-feira, setembro 28, 2006

PMP Question - Standard Deviation

Matthias, thanks for the question ( transcribed below ).

Question :

"I have a problem with one questin about time management.
The question is:
The project manager for a project is going to use the PERT method of scheduling for the project that she is working on. using PERT calculation the variance fr the project is found to be 25 days. What is the range of values for the project duration such that here will be a least 95% probability that the actual project completion will fall between the high and low value of range of values:
a. 164 - 173 days
b. 144 - 194 days
c. 119 - 219 days
d. 159 - 179 days

My answer:

The point of this question was to recognize that the variance is the standard deviation squared. For a variance of 25 the standard deviation should be 5. 2 sd is 10 and +- 10 is the range of values that is 95% probability of including the actual value. The range of values is +-10 or 20. Answer "A" is 9, answer "B" is 50, answer "C" is 100 and answer "D" is 20. D is the right answer.
The answer in book is D but from my calculations score is 152,4 -
185,6 days. Could you give me a proper answer. Maybe I did something
wrong.
My calcutations do not fit to any point."

Answer :

Variance=(standard deviation)squared so sd=5
that means that the range of values is from -5 to +5

95% probability means two times sd.
that means the range is -10 to +10 i.e. 20

This means that "D" is the correct answer !

Simple ah !

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